Forecasts say that in 2026, American drivers will have a year of unusually low fuel prices, with the average price of gas in the country expected to be around $2.97 a gallon. If this prediction comes true, it will be the fourth year in a row that gas prices go down, and it will be the first time since 2020 that the annual average goes below $3.
The background is very different from 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and caused oil prices to skyrocket and gas prices to go over $5 a gallon for the first time. This caused US inflation to rise above 9%. Today, oil markets are much more stable because global supply is growing faster than demand. This makes one of the biggest problems with the cost of living easier to deal with.
GasBuddy’s 2026 forecast says that drivers will only see a small seasonal rise in prices. Prices are expected to reach their highest point in May, when stations switch to more expensive summer fuel and demand rises. By December, the national average could drop to about $2.83 a gallon, which would keep prices low until the end of the year.
The main reason is that crude oil is cheaper. The US Energy Information Administration says that the average price of benchmark oil in the US will be about $51 a barrel in 2026, down from $65 in 2025 and $77 in 2024. This will be the fourth straight quarter of declines. That steady drop is due to a lot more supply, especially from Saudi-led OPEC, which increased output sharply in 2025 because President Donald Trump put pressure on them. US production is still close to record highs.
US oil production was recently around 13.83 million barrels per day, which is just below an all-time high. However, federal data now show that production will drop slightly to an average of 13.5 million barrels per day in 2026 as low prices force some drillers to cut back. Market experts say that if US production slows down too much, OPEC could take back market share and raise prices again.
Analysts say that the lower prices of gasoline and oil today are not because demand is falling, but because supply is rising across the board. This makes people less worried that cheap fuel means a recession is coming. However, they also point out geopolitical flashpoints that could still shock prices, such as the US’s involvement in Venezuela and ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure during the Russia-Ukraine war.
For now, though, the gas pump is a rare bright spot for families who are still struggling with rising grocery, electricity, and heating bills. Since the pandemic, 2026 is shaping up to be the cheapest year for gasoline. Lower fuel costs could be a big help for both consumers and the US economy as a whole.
