President Donald Trump may have achieved the most important thing in his political career by negotiating a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza. This has earned him praise from Israeli leaders and international observers that has never been seen before. The deal brought 20 Israeli hostages back home alive, and people are now wondering if this diplomatic success could change Trump’s presidency in a big way or make him stick to his unusual way of running the country.
Unconventional Diplomacy Works
Trump’s approach to the Middle East conflict was different from what the State Department usually does. Instead of looking at it through the lens of historical grievances, he saw it mainly as a real estate and economic problem. His choice of fellow real estate mogul Steve Witkoff as chief negotiator and the recall of son-in-law Jared Kushner, even though there were ethical concerns about Gulf business interests, were key to making the breakthrough.
On Monday, the President enjoyed a lot of praise from Israelis, which is something that doesn’t happen very often at home. He was also seen with world leaders in Egypt, who had rushed to his side even though many of them didn’t like his “America First” populism. Trump called the success proof of his disdain for traditional foreign policy, orthodox peacemaking, and presidential caution.
The 20-Point Peace Plan
Trump’s full peace plan includes sending an international peacekeeping force to Gaza, getting Hamas to give up its weapons and control of the land, and getting a group of Arab countries to work together to rebuild the area that was destroyed. The plan suggests that a Palestinian state could happen, which is something that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is against. This makes people wonder if Trump will stay involved after the first announcement.
Analysts say that Trump needs to keep putting pressure on Netanyahu to keep the ceasefire going, because Israel has broken similar agreements in the past to stay in power. Trump needs to “hold Netanyahu’s feet to the fire” for the rest of his term in order for the deal to work.
Unusual methods lead to unprecedented success
Trump’s approach to the Middle East during both of his terms as president systematically broke down traditional State Department strategies. He moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognized Israel’s control over the Golan Heights, ordered the 2020 strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, and allowed strikes on Iran’s nuclear program early in his second term.
Experts said that none of these high-risk choices would lead to the violence and reprisals they had predicted. Instead, they made Trump closer to Israelis, which he used as political leverage to pressure Netanyahu when he needed to. Critics, on the other hand, want to know why Trump didn’t step in sooner to stop the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians after the attacks on October 7, 2023.
What This Means for Other Global Conflicts
Trump’s success in the Middle East makes people wonder about his stalled peace plan for Ukraine. During the first eight months of his presidency, he didn’t put enough pressure on the peace talks in Gaza and Ukraine, which hurt both of them. After an Israeli attack on Hamas negotiators in Qatar last month, Trump took a much tougher stance against Netanyahu. This could be a model for how to deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is going to Washington. This is happening while talks are going on about the U.S. possibly giving Tomahawk cruise missiles to Kyiv, which would let Ukraine hit targets deep inside Russia.
Problems with domestic politics continue
Even though Trump said the Middle East should stop “old feuds and bitter hatreds,” people don’t think he will use the same kind of conciliatory tactics at home. His administration keeps showing a cold side by firing federal workers without mercy, trying to use the justice system against enemies like former FBI chief James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James, and being obsessed with getting back at political foes.
During his visit to Egypt, the President showed how much he liked authoritarian rule by praising President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s approach to crime and criticizing the limits of U.S. law. “They don’t play games, so they don’t have much crime,” Trump said, referring to his plan to send troops to cities run by Democrats.
The Shutdown Crisis Poses a Threat to the Domestic Agenda
House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Monday that the government might be shut down for “one of the longest times in American history.” This would create a political crisis at home that is very different from Trump’s success abroad. Trump’s success in Gaza may make him more popular around the world, but it’s not clear if it will change things in the US.
The President’s deal-making drive that led to his approach to Gaza could make things harder for Speaker Johnson. For example, Trump recently took away a GOP pressure point by making sure that military personnel won’t miss paychecks during the government shutdown. Trump has also been more willing to talk to Democrats about extending subsidies for the Affordable Care Act than some Republican leaders in Congress would like.
Questions About Palestinian Self-Determination That Are Still Open
Trump’s speeches on Monday didn’t say anything about how Palestinians will have a real say in their future, which is a huge gap that could stop him from getting what he wants. Trump is just one of many American leaders who have talked about the “historic dawn of a new Middle East.” But the fact that the Palestinian issue hasn’t been solved has led to many false dawns.
The President’s success depends on whether he stays involved after the big splash from the first announcement fades. To reach goals like sending peacekeepers to other countries, getting Hamas to give up its weapons, and rebuilding Gaza on a large scale, he needs to pay attention to his 20-point plan for the rest of his term.
Thanks to Autocratic Regional Partners
Trump praised authoritarian leaders who helped bring about the ceasefire, such as Egyptian President el-Sisi, Qatari leaders who had given him a jumbo jet for Air Force One use, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. All of them are in charge of states that are known for being oppressive, locking up opponents, and stifling free speech.
Trump said of Erdogan, “He’s such a tough guy, he is as tough as you can be, but we love him.” This shows that he prefers authoritarian leaders to democratic ones. While speaking to the Israeli parliament, Trump told President Isaac Herzog to pardon Netanyahu, who is facing corruption charges. He dismissed the charges by saying, “Cigars and champagne, who the hell cares?”
A Legacy Moment That Probably Won’t Change How the President Acts
Trump’s victory in the Middle East is the kind of legacy achievement that can change presidencies, but his respect for unchecked power and jealousy of leaders who aren’t bound by the law explain why big changes are still unlikely. When asked on Air Force One if the ceasefire deal would help his chances of going to heaven, Trump joked, “I don’t think there’s anything going to get me in heaven…” I don’t think I’m going to heaven.
The President’s binary confrontational style, which has characterized his business career and political journey, stands in stark contrast to his seemingly more altruistic rhetoric about peacemaking. But his history as a harsh leader who is obsessed with revenge and tearing down the establishment makes it unlikely that he will be able to heal the divisions in the country.
Trump’s diplomatic success in Gaza proves that his gut-driven, unorthodox methods work. However, it also raises important questions about sustainability, Palestinian rights, and whether this victory will lead to more high-pressure approaches to other global conflicts or make him less divisive as a leader in the US. In the next few months, we’ll find out if this breakthrough is a real turning point or just another brief moment of peace in the Middle East that will soon fade.
