In November 2025, US nonfarm payrolls went up by 64,000, which was more than the 45,000 that economists had predicted. This was after a sharp drop of 105,000 jobs in October due to federal government buyouts. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021. This was a sign that the job market was weak. Retail sales in October stayed the same, which was the slowest growth in five months and below predictions of a 0.1% rise.
Healthcare added the most jobs, with 46,000 new ones, followed by construction with 28,000 and social assistance with 18,000. Transportation and warehousing lost 18,000 jobs, mostly in the courier industry. The 162,000 federal job cuts in October were the most since 2010 and were linked to cuts made by the Trump administration.
According to NRF data, retail sales in November, not including cars and gas, rose 0.12% from the month before and 4.53% from the year before. Every month, grocery stores grew by 0.74%, while clothing stores fell by 0.04% and electronics stores fell by 2.94%. NRF predicts that holiday sales will grow by 3% to 7%, bringing the total retail sales for 2025 to $5.48 trillion.
The slowdown in job growth is a sign of a “low-hire/low-fire” economy because of tariff shocks and other unknowns. Flat retail sales show that consumer spending is slowing down, even though people are still working. The overall underemployment rate is 8.7%. Even though the Federal Reserve didn’t cut rates in January, the chances of a rate cut in March are going up.
