October Rally: Stocks Climb on Trade Optimism and Strong Earnings Outlook

As trade tensions eased and corporate earnings rose, stock markets around the world, including the U.S. Stock Market, showed positive momentum. The U.S. Stock Market saw futures rise and gained notable attention as Indian indices closed higher ahead of Diwali trading. Investors were waiting for important inflation data and big tech earnings, but key sectors like banking and FMCG led the way.

The market is gaining momentum as trade tensions ease

As tensions between the U.S. and China eased, global markets started to pick up steam. President Donald Trump backed down from his threats to “destroy China,” which calmed investors’ nerves after he had threatened to raise tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are coming up. This makes people more hopeful that a trade deal can be reached before the leaders meet in South Korea. This change made US equity futures go up: Dow futures went up 0.3%, S&P 500 futures went up 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures went up 0.4%. Asian markets did the same thing, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index going up 0.6% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 going up 2.4%.

Indian markets are going up before Diwali

The Sensex rose 484.53 points (0.58%) to 83,952.19 and the Nifty rose 124.55 points (0.49%) to 25,709.85 on Friday. Indian stocks continued to rise. Strong domestic demand, falling inflation, and strong corporate earnings all helped the rally. The Bank Nifty rose almost 300 points to a new all-time high of 57,830, thanks to both private and public sector lenders. Stocks in the FMCG, real estate, and consumption sectors rose 2–4% as people bought things for the holidays. But IT and metals had some mild profit-taking. Midcaps stayed the same, but smallcaps fell by 0.6%.

The start of earnings season brings good news

The market felt better because of the strong earnings of companies. UltraTech Cement’s net profit rose 75.2% to ₹1,232 crore, thanks to a 20.3% rise in revenue. HDFC Bank’s net profit went up 11% to ₹18,641 crore, thanks in part to selling its stake in HDB Financial. IDBI Bank’s net profit rose by 98% to ₹3,627 crore, even though its net interest income fell. Dixon Technologies made a net profit of ₹670 crore, up 72%, on revenue growth of 28.8%. JSW Energy’s EBITDA rose 78% to ₹2,996.46 crore, but its net profit fell 17%. IndusInd Bank, on the other hand, lost ₹437 crore because of higher provisions.

Important Events and the Future of Trading

The Indian stock market was open on October 20, 2025, but it will close on October 21 for Diwali. On Diwali, there will be a special one-hour Muhurat trading session from 1:45 PM to 2:45 PM. This is a sign of good luck for the new financial year. The US consumer price index report for September, which is expected to show a 0.4% monthly increase, is also something investors are keeping an eye on because it could affect the Federal Reserve’s decisions about interest rates. This week, Netflix, Tesla, and Intel will all report their earnings, which will keep the market’s attention.

Changes in Currency and Goods

Oil prices stayed steady, with Brent near $61 a barrel and WTI above $57. This was because trade tensions eased and worries about regional bank credit risks were balanced. After a sharp drop of 1.7% on Friday, the price of gold stayed the same. This was the biggest drop since May. The Indian rupee lost seven paise, bringing the value of the US dollar to 88.03. The yield on the 10-year bond rose slightly to 6.51%.